Look back in anguish
A year ago I made seven fearless predictions for 2012. Time to fess up and see how I did.
The first: “The problems in Europe are not over, but they will muddle along. Fear will subside.” While the words seem a tad milquetoast today, at the time I was way out on a limb. Anyway, count that one right.
The second: “Mitt Romney will defeat Barack Obama for the presidency.” Not only did Mittens have a tin ear, he had no heart. Son Tagg now says his father didn’t even want the job. I was wrong.
Third, “The Bank of Canada will raise interest rates.” Wrong again.
Fourth, “Kate and Wills will be pregnant.” Bingo.
Fifth, “The Canadian dollar will end the year about where it is now, 98 cents U.S.” With the C$ closing the year at $100.51 (U.S.) I think that’s good enough to call me correct.
Sixth, “Rob Ford will be charged with an offence.” Bingo. In November a judge found the mayor guilty of breaking the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act and ordered him removed from office.
Seven, “The S&P/TSX Composite Index, down 11 per cent in 2011, will rise by at least that amount.” The S&P/TSX was up only 4 per cent. If I’d picked just about any another index I would have achieved my predicted double-digit return. The S&P 500 was up 13 percent; the S&P Euro index, measured in U.S. dollars, was up 15 per cent. NASDAQ rose 16 per cent; the German DAX 29 per cent. Even the Greece Athex Composite was up 33 per cent.
Overall, four right and three wrong. Barely in positive territory. But, expressed as batting average, four for seven is .571. Good enough for the Hall of Fame.
Coming next: My fearless predictions for 2013.