Unpredictable

As 2025 draws to an end, I found myself wondering, did I make any predictions in a blog for this year? And if so, how did they turn out? Just as an aside, the previous year I gave myself a 70% mark for that year’s predictions and added: “Not bad for a guy from Guelph.”
Even with such a good track record, in fact I ended up making far fewer calls this year. Just as well. My top prediction for 2025 turned out to be totally wrong. “Abandon hope, all ye who enter here,” I began in a February blog. “I have nothing positive to say about the near-term future of the Canadian economy,” then continued a sentence later with this, “I see only troubling signs for our economy that will almost certainly lead to a recession later this year.”
I must have believed that was not sufficient a declaration, because I added with foreboding, “We may already be in one.” In fact, we weren’t.
I then went on to say Canadian firms will relocate to the U.S. and job losses will be substantial. “If we don’t watch out, we’ll all be freezing in the dark, jobless.”
The classic definition of recession is two negative quarters in succession. That almost happened this fall but didn’t, so I was wrong, wrong, wrong.
As for politics, my prediction in a separate column that month was that Dominic LeBlanc, a New Brunswick MP, could be Liberal leader after the departure of Justin Trudeau who, incidentally, isn’t doing too badly these days, squiring pop star Katy Perry around.
But, I digress, which is what you do when you want to change the topic. My actual pick as “by far the front-runner” for Liberal leader was Chrystia Freeland. Oops. She fizzled out along the way somewhere.
As for the likelihood of Mark Carney as leader, I was almost dismissive of him, saying, while on paper he had an excellent track record in business and finance “he doesn’t have a seat in Parliament.” As if that mattered. Carney was chosen leader of the Liberal Party in March and was sworn in five days later as leader, a title he retained by winning the April election, although three seats short of a majority.
Now that I have made a laughing stock of myself, you won’t be surprised to learn that my one and only New Year’s prediction for 2026 is not to make any more predictions.